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Rex Sorgatz

Screenplay idea: Man gets amnesia and reconstructs his life from blog comments he wrote. Short film -- he kills himself after 11 minutes.

dec 26
2006

30 Predictions for 2007 in Media/Tech/Pop

The usual caveats apply: I have no inside knowledge on any of this stuff. I talk to media+tech people about trends all the time, but nobody ever tells me anything important. And I only have mutual funds, so don't try to play that angle.

Besides, I'm just taking cheap shots anyway.

1) $100 PC. Finally, computing in the Third World! But priorities are reassessed when someone does the math and realizes that the One Benjamin PC could feed a single African for 37 years.

2) MySpace. Despite (or because of) News Corp's ownership of MySpace, unique users start to disappear. Someone at the New York Times realizes that your friend Tom has released absolutely zero new features to the community since Fox's takeover. In a scramble, MySpace releases a bunch of bad features that everyone hates. However, they sell several more sponsorship deals for movies, tv shows, and bands that you don't care about.

3) Apple. Apple buys Last.FM. Finally. And iTV is a hit. Finally. And the iPhone? Nope, never. Why? Cuz the iPhone is like God -- if it really existed, you wouldn't care that much.

4) Google. By partnering YouTube and Apple's iTV, Google has you watching Ask A Ninja on your plasma. Hello, Google Video ads.

5) Gawker. A rumor is leaked about a Conde Naste buy-out that involves a digital unit built around the new WiredNews.com. Nick Denton is too busy updating Lifehacker to respond.

6) The Office. Jim chooses Pam. Forgetting this is fiction, I attempt to drunk-dial Karen.

7) Studio 60. Sorkin's new show sorta catches on. Gloating until my pancreas explodes, I try to explain that Studio 60 is the first example of middle-brow camp. You call me a moron.

8) Technorati. A media company takes a shot at buying Technorati. Maybe Tribune, maybe NYT, probably Wash Post. By the end of the year, people are talking about a Newsvine purchase.

9) Publishing. Your mom is charged with plagiarism. Her book skyrockets to the top of the best-seller list.

10) TV News Anchor Ratings. 1) Brian Williams. 2) Charlie Gibson. 3) Katie Couric.

11) Windows. Vista ships. You try not to yawn.

12) Twitter. Google buys Twitter. A bunch of media organizations sigh deeply over not thinking of this first.

13) AOL. I have no idea. And neither do they.

14) Facebook. That snotty Harvard kid tells Yahoo, "Tell you what, I'll buy you instead."

15) Yahoo. Ba-bye, Terry.

16) Zune. Version 2.0 of the Zune is launched. A small group of converts start to form, while Engadget asks "too little, too late?"

17) Second Life. Robots invade and kill everyone. Turns out "everyone" is 5 kids in Tallahassee.

18) Mobile. 2007: the year in mobile. If I keep saying it, eventually it will be true.

19) Comedy. Dane Cook gets invited to speak at this year's White House Press Corps dinner. When Cook jokes about fucking the Bush Twins, G.W. laughs more than he did at Colbert.

20) Chumby. This little nerd toy you've never heard of becomes a huge hit.

21) Newspapers. More lay-offs, more shrinkage, more free weeklies, more navel-gazing.

22) SmartPox. Add it to the list of great ideas that won't catch traction. (See also: Open ID, micro-payments, free city-wide wireless.)

23) CBS. The digital unit will make a few acquisitions that seem peculiar. But by the end of the year, they will look hipper than Unkie Viacom.

24) GNR. Klosterman spreads a rumor that Axl will release Chinese Democracy on April 24. Thousands of thirty-somethings show up at a record store at midnight only to discover... ha ha, fooled you, old man.

25) Courtney Love. Comeback album, comeback movie, comeback fragrance.

26) Celebutantes. People talk a lot about Britney's comeback, but the new summer album does as well as releases from Jessica Simpson, Paris Hilton, and K-Fed. Meanwhile, Nicole Richie accidentally eats herself.

27) Ze Frank. The funniest guy in America lands a deal at Comedy Central.

28) Amanda Congdon. While the blogosphere wonders who's watching, Amanda's ratings go up, up, up. When you go home for Thanksgiving, you realize your dad has it bookmarked.

29) lonelygirl15. Remember Ellen Feiss?

30) Earth. The planet will get warmer.

Have a swell 2007.

13 comments

I couldn't agree more. Excellent list.

posted by enrico at 8:43 PM on December 26, 2006

if i twittered, i'd twitter you that i'm reading this...

posted by Dan Mu at 10:23 PM on December 26, 2006

Good work, but what about new videogame mediacenter console (the Wii for example)? Bye.

posted by Axell at 5:03 AM on December 27, 2006

Dane Cook with a girl - Now that's funny.

posted by irascible_wit at 5:34 AM on December 27, 2006

Great post. MediaVidea has a list of 3 wishes for Online Media in 2007.
http://mediavidea.blogspot.com/2006/12/3-wishes-for-2007.html

posted by Pramit at 7:03 AM on December 27, 2006

301: Hollywood castrates Mel Gibson with a dull file, exiles Jimmy Carter to Elba. Initiates "Michael Richards Free Speech Award."

posted by skip at 8:02 AM on December 27, 2006

i'm a fan of studio 60...what is 'middle-brow camp?' great thoughts btw...

posted by david lee at 9:01 AM on December 27, 2006

Great list! Happy New Year!

Your Friends @ eBuv.com

posted by David Bleaman at 3:20 PM on December 27, 2006

17) Second Life.
If you're wandering around on the ground in SL, you might miss us. We're all up in our skyboxes playing the most immersive online poker, ever, on our fully automatic 10 player VGA Texas Hold'em tables. I'm the Robot. I invaded over two years ago. The 5 Tallahassee kids got abducted to the Teen Grid.

-Easy Wheeling
You're right about #20, though... ;-)

posted by Easy at 7:32 AM on December 28, 2006

cool list, had to laugh quite a few times. Some things I didn't get though, being from Germany... (Who is Ellen Feiss?)

posted by Roland at 3:10 PM on December 28, 2006

Ha! Very funny. Ze frank will be picked up for sure. And I honestly really did have to scratch my head to remember ellen feiss... and then I did.... and laughed :p

posted by Blaze at 10:19 AM on December 29, 2006

great list

posted by dog eater at 3:06 PM on December 29, 2006

Forget video games, online worlds, YouTube, Google, Yahoo, AOL (what a mess), and the death of Newspapers. The techno trend of the decade is the fact that our best and brightest kids and college "students" have become addicted to poker. They play it online, watch tournaments on ESPN2, play it in dorms and seedy apartments, play with their parents' money and student loan funds, and start drinking and smoking cigarettes at the table, casino, video console, TV, and online video poker terminals. The sad thing is Texas Hold 'em is basically poker for morons. Our best hope is that somehow all of the sitting, smoking and drinking will make the guys mess up the players gonads and therefore they will not reproduce. In a way this cleansing of the gene pool would be a diabolical plot by the Trilateral commission to upgrade the gene pool in the United States and the EU. But, it's not. It's merely a money-making trend brought to you by Disney.

posted by Doug Root at 3:46 PM on December 31, 2006




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