nov 30

2007 Predictions Revisited

Last year at this time, I made my annual Predictions for Media/Tech/Pop, which somehow even squeaked a bit of praise from Frau Denton. As I wrote in a comment in that Valleywag thread, accuracy is never the goal of these things -- it's more about creating alternate universes that seem plausible.

But that's no excuse to hide behind the veil of science fiction. So let's review how well my predictions actually were. I score them below, on an accuracy scale of 1 to 10, even the ones that were purely a joke.

1) $100 PC will be a failure.

Cha-ching. This one hardly seemed obvious a year ago, but this project has run into innumerable problems, the least of which is that it costs twice the advertised price. Score: 10

2) MySpace will introduce no new significant features.

I was very close to scoring a 10 on this, but Facebook scored the bejezus out of Tom and Rupert by mid-year, so they finally released some new things, including a user update stream. It still sucks. Score: 4

3) Apple buys Last.FM. iTV is a hit. No iPhone.

I should just erase all my points -- I was wrong about every single one of these. Horribly, horribly wrong. To be honest, I only made this prediction so I could write this: "The iPhone is like god -- if it really existed, you wouldn't care that much." Turns out, I was only half right -- it is god, but you do care. Score: -1

4) Google and Apple form partnership.

Nope. In fact, I'm surprised to see how much the two companies were competing by the end of the year -- especially in the mobile space. Score: 0

5) A rumor spreads that Conde Nast is buying Gawker.

This didn't happen, but it totally should have, so... Score: 3

6) Jim chooses Pam on The Office.

Yes! Score: 10

7) Studio 60 catches on.

No! Score: 0

8) A media company tries to buy Technorati.

If by "buy" you mean "runs away from in fear," then sure. Score: 0

9) Your mom is charged with plagiarism.

The year started with more plagiarism accusations, but they mostly fizzled out by the end of the year. Score: 3

10) 1) Brian Williams. 2) Charlie Gibson. 3) Katie Couric.

Flip the first two. Score: 4

11) Vista ships.

But it sucks. Score: 7

12) Google buys Twitter.

Could still happen. Score: 2

13) AOL does nothing.

Ya know, despite all the lay-offs, AOL wasn't as laughable in 2007 as it was in 2006. It may get spun off yet... Score: 5

14) No one buys Facebook.

A year ago, this actually sounded like a bold prediction. Score: 10

15) Terry Semel exits Yahoo.

C'mon, gimme some credit now, eh? This wasn't obvious! Score: 10

16) Zune 2.0 is a sorta hit.

Oh yeah, baby. It's not super huge, but it did sell out on Amazon and other places. Score: 9

17) Second Life begins to sink.

Hitting my stride now. Score: 8

18) The year of mobile.

I say this every year, and it never quite happens. The iPhone and... that's about it. Score: 3

19) Dane Cook hosts the White House Press Corp dinner.

Bzzt. Score: 0

20) Chumby!

Well, it came out. No accolades though. Score: 3

21) More newspaper layoffs.

Ugh, that one was really hard. Score: 8

22) Smartpox won't catch on.

What the hell is Smartpox? Score: 10

23) CBS makes some surprise investments.

Last.FM! WallStrip! Now do you forgive me for those horrible Apple predictions? Score: 10

24) Chinese Democracy comes out.

Whahahaha. (Okay, some tracks leaked.) Score: 3

25) Courtney Love come-back.

Not so much. Score: 2

26) Britney's album tanks.

Hm, tough one. It went gold. Score: 6

27) Ze Frank ends up at Comedy Central.

You wish. Score: 0

28) Amanda Congdon on = success.

Shoot. Me. Now. Score: 1

29) lonelygirl15 fades.

Totes. Score: 9

30) The planet warms.

Yawn. (I mean, OMG!) Score: 7

Average: 4.9

Meh, not bad. I should have predicted that I would buy Newsvine though.


I forgive you for your Apple predictions, considering you had some more obscure ones that were spot on or close to it. Can only wait to see what next year will have in store.

posted by Vladimir at 5:27 PM on December 2, 2007

You should get more points for #12. Google did buy Jaiku, very much like Twitter but with more features and far fewer users.

posted by Bruce at 6:30 PM on December 2, 2007

And your 2006 predictions about Fox Business Channel and dropping Times Select were just ahead of their time.

posted by adam at 10:03 PM on December 3, 2007

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